Управление живучестью сложной системы на основе логико-вероятностного прогнозирования

Abstract

There has been considered a method of controlling persistence of a complex system using modeled change of probabilistic failure in time system degrading. There has been proposed an approach to the problem of connections between blocks within the complex system. A simulation algorithm that combines logical probabilistic and logical linguistic forecasting of processes of parameter change
in time has been described. Using modeling one can receive a time reserve for performing the required operations of the system persistence control, thus, enhancing its reliability.